Falling Employment in USA
US Employment
The Fed’s Beige Book revealed the pace of economic decline had moderated or stabilized at a low level in most districts adding that the manufacturing sector remained subdued but slightly more positive than in the past. The Fed said there was still slack in the labor markets, with most sectors reducing jobs or holding steady and net employment falling.
If the recovery does, in fact, turn out to be lackluster, the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated and capacity utilization rates unusually low in the near-term.
NY Fed President Dudley
The balance of risks is still tilted toward weakness in growth and employment and not toward higher inflation
Reference Source: ForexNews
US Dollar Rupiah and Indonesian Bombing
July 17 (Bloomberg)
US Dollar Rupiah and Indonesian Bombing
The bombing triggered a brief flight to safety into the dollar and the yen in Asian trading. The Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.5 percent to 10,175 per dollar, after dropping as much as 1 percent, the most since June 23 as bombs exploded at the Ritz Carlton and the JW Marriott hotels in the Jakarta, killing eight people and injuring at least 53 others.
The rupiah then pared its losses, trading at 10,163. The Bank of Indonesia may “have intervened” in the currency markets today to limit its losses, currency strategists at Credit Suisse Group AG said in a report today.
Strong Dollar Strategy
A Strong Dollar Strategy
July 15 (Bloomberg) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an interview with Al-Arabiya television that the administration of President Barack Obama favors a strong dollar and expressed confidence the greenback will remain the main reserve currency.
The yen and dollar weakened against most of their major counterparts as global stocks rose on speculation more corporate earnings will beat expectations, damping demand for the safest assets.
The Yen slid for a third day against the euro after Intel Corp.’s revenue forecast exceeded analysts’ estimates following better-than-expected earnings yesterday from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Johnson & Johnson. The Canadian dollar rose to a one-month high against the greenback after crude oil and other commodities rose.
As the Chinese were becoming more vocal in regard to the need to move away from the U.S. dollar, they were in actual fact buying more dollars than ever to keep their own currency stable
Wrote Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, in a research note today.
The Pound
The pound rose as much as 1 percent to $1.6467, the highest level since July 2, as a U.K. report on jobless claims last month indicated the worst of the recession may be over.
Chinese Holdings
The foreign-exchange reserves of China topped $2 trillion for the first time in a sign of the difficulty the nation faces in finding places to invest. The reserves rose a record $178 billion in the second quarter to $2.132 trillion, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site. That compares with a $7.7 billion gain in the previous three-month period.
Premier Wen Jiabao said in March that China was “worried” about its holdings of Treasuries as the U.S. deficit ballooned. The nation held $763.5 billion Treasuries in April, making it the biggest foreign creditor to the U.S.
Demo Forex Trading Contest - Result Week 26/09
Master Forex Demo Forex Trading Contest
The mid-week performance of the participants of Demo Forex Trading Contest using Demo Account organized by Master Forex is as follows:
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Account Country Balance
1 4658024 Russia 32 880
2 4654209 Russia 22 310
3 4657496 Egypt 11 340
4 4656952 Uzbekistan 10 270
5 4658115 Ukraine 10 029
6 4656763 China 9 302
7 4656601 Indonesia 9 223
8 4658098 Ukraine 7 989
9 4658160 Russia 7 337
10 4658164 Ukraine 6 612
The champion is a Russian contestant with $32, 880 in the balance. At a distance away is another Russian with a balance of $22, 310 and the surprise in third place is a Egyptian with a balance of $11, 340.
The Champion for last week Master Forex Demo Forex Trading Contest is a participant from Iran. The Runners up are from Russia.
Prizes for the Master Forex Weekly Demo Forex Trading Contest
The prizes are as follows:
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1st. Prize : $100.00
2nd. Prize : $ 50.00
3rd. Prize : $ 25.00
Interested in the Master Forex Demo Forex Trading Contest ?
If you are interested to test your Trading Strategies or Forex Trading System you can register for the Demo Contest at the Master Forex website (Click the Master Forex banners).
The Rules of the Demo Forex Trading Contest are simple and standard:
* You register new Demo Account and wait nearest Monday. Then, begin trading and do your best to increase your balance. You can use any strategies or advisors you want to. We have no restrictions on the use of Technical Indicators and Expert Advisors.
*To take part in this competition you should register a new Demo Account in a special form. When it is ready, the Demo Account will be locked till the beginning of next week. On Monday 00-00 GMT+2 all accounts registered on the previous week will be unlocked automatically.
* On Friday evening all Demo Accounts participating in the Contest will be locked. The top 10 with the highest balances are the winners of the Contest for the week.
* The running result of the Demo Account Contest is constantly updated and displayed at Master Forex website.
* If you are one of the the winners, you can claim your Bonus by leaving a request in the trader’s office. The request should contain number of the Demo Account and a date of competition you took part.
* Kindly note that double accounts are forbidden and contestants with double Demo Accounts will be automatically disqualified.
* You must trade on the Demo Account according to the Customers Agreement.
* Bonus is credited to you real trading account, which you indicated during registration. You are not allowed to withdraw this Bonus. You can use this money for trading and thereafter you can withdraw your profit, but not the bonus itself.
* If we ascertain that you break the rules of the Contest you will be disqualified. Master Forex reserves the right to disqualify Contestants who does not observes the Rules Of the Contest.
The US Dollar Drops
Headlines on the Drop of the US Dollar
The news headlines for last week trade was more on the US Dollar. As reported in Bloomberg: The Dollar Weakens and GBPUSD: Dollar Weakens and Pound Strengthens, trading for last week and on Friday in particular was not in favor of the US Dollar. The Dollar continued its decline against all the major currencies.
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The US Dollar Weakens
The US Dollar weakens and slips to 1.5900 against the Pound. .
The Dollar declined against the Euro
The Dollar drop by 0.9 percent to $1.4021 against the Euro from $1.3890 yesterday, after reaching $1.4030, the weakest level since Jan. 2.
The U.S. Dollar declined by 3.6 percent against the Euro this week. .
The Yen Stronger against the Dollar
The Yen advanced 0.2 percent to 94.57 per dollar, from 94.41, after touching 93.86, the strongest level since March 19. .
The Strong Canadian Dollar
The Canadian Dollar advanced today to C$1.1205, the strongest level since Oct. 9. .
New Zealand’s New High against US Dollar
New Zealand’s currency climbed to 62.38 U.S. cents, the highest level since Oct. 21.
The Australian Dollar New High against US Dollar
The Australian Dollar reached 78.67 U.S. cents, the highest level since Oct. 2.
The decline of the US Dollar is expected to continue in the short term.
GBPUSD - Dollar Weakens and Pound Strengthens
The dollar was under selling pressure and declined further to the lowest level against the Euro, Pound and Yen. Against the Euro it is it declines to the lowest since January.
The weakening of the Dollar started in March after the Federal Reserve announced its plan to buy up to $300 billion in Treasuries and continue to slide further as reported in Bloomberg: Dollar Weakens.
The Pound further strengthens against the Dollar. GBPUSD was traded at $1.5790, the highest level since Dec. 2008. The gain of strength of the Pound was reported in the Pound Strengthens.
Short Term Market Outlook - GBPUSD
For the short term the signal is to BUY GBPUSD.
Bloomberg:The Dollar Weakens
The Dollar Weakens
May 19. Bloomberg reported that the Dollar fell against most of its major counterparts after three U.S. financial firms seeking to return government bailout money fueled speculation banks have sufficient cash, reducing demand for the safety of Dollar-based investments.
Brazil and China not using the US Dollar
Brazil and China will try to use their own currencies, rather than the Dollar, in trade transactions, the Financial Times reported, citing aides to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and central bank officials.
What we are talking about now is Brazil paying for Chinese goods with Reals and China paying for Brazilian goods with Renminbi,
Governors of the countries’ central banks will probably meet soon to discuss the matter
A Brazilian Central Bank Official.
The Pound
The Pound appreciated as much as 1.1 percent to $1.5514, the highest since Dec. 18, after ICAP Plc and Marks & Spencer Group Plc posted profit that beat analysts’ estimates, spurring speculation the worst of British recession is over.
The Euro
The Euro earlier strengthened versus the Dollar after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months ahead, increased this month to 31.1, a three-year high, from 13 in April.
Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar advanced as much as 1.4 percent to 77.51 U.S. cents, the strongest level since Oct. 3, as Stevens of the Reserve Bank said in Sydney that Australia “should be in a relatively good position and well placed to take part in a renewed international expansion.”
The Australian Dollar rose to the strongest level since October after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the global recovery may begin “towards the end of the year.” The Dollar dropped against the yen as a government report showed housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly slid to a record low last month.
The Dollar and the Yen
The Dollar dropped against the yen as a government report showed housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly slid to a record low last month.
Stronger Won
South Korea’s won rose 0.8 percent to 1,249.25 against the Dollar as overseas investors bought more local shares than they sold for a third day. It extended gains in the past month to 6.6 percent, the best performance among the 10 most actively traded Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The won reached 1,225.97 on May 11, the strongest level since October.
The New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand’s Dollar gained 1.1 percent to 60.15 cents.
Pound Strengthens
Pound Strengthens
May 18 (Bloomberg) — The pound rose against the euro and the dollar after an industry report showed U.K. home sellers raised asking prices in May by the most in more than a year.
The Pound appreciated to 88.24 pence per Euro from 88.93 pence on May 15. It also rose to $1.5281 from $1.5180.
The Pound climbed for the third day as signs the worst of the recession may be over sent the FTSE 100 Index 1.9 percent higher, its biggest gain in more than two weeks.
We see further gains ahead for sterling, especially against the euro. Investors have focused on the signs of stabilization emerging from the U.K. economy.
Gareth Berry, an analyst in London at UBS AG.
Home Prices
The average cost of a home climbed 2.4 percent from April.
Rightmove Plc.
The evidence Europe’s second-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in three decades. It was the largest increase since February 2008.
The Pound dropped by 20 percent in the past year made Britain the first choice of buyers of property market
Weaker sterling makes U.K. property more attractive. The U.K. property market is a screaming buy compared to rivals in continental Europe.
Turner said. Neil Turner, the Wiesbaden, Germany-based executive in charge of the money manager’s new 300 million-euro property fund.
Gilts Advance
Gilts rose as the Bank of England bought 3.5 billion Pounds ($5.4 billion) of gilts. The central bank said May 7 it will expand its asset-purchase program to 125 billion Pounds from 75 billion pounds to spur growth and fight deflation.
Former U.K. finance minister Norman Lamont, who drew criticism during the 1990s recession for announcing the “green shoots” of recovery, said he wouldn’t use the phrase again now because the banking system remains broken.
There are some optimistic signs but I wouldn’t call them green shoots
Lamont said today at the Banking Outlook 2009 Conference in London.
The rate of decline in the economy is decelerating. For a recovery, the first thing that has to happen is, you stop falling.
The yield on the 10-year gilt fell six basis points to 3.48 percent. The two-year note yield slipped six basis points to 1 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Gilts advanced as the Bank of England bought government bonds maturing in 10 to 25 years as part its drive to lower borrowing costs.
Euro Declines as Economy Contracts
Euro Declines as Economy Contracts Most in at Least 13 Years
May 15 (Bloomberg) — The euro fell against the dollar and extended a weekly loss versus the yen as the economy of the 16- nation region contracted the most in at least 13 years, raising concern the pace of recovery will be slow.
The Dollar
The U.S. currency pared its loss against the yen as manufacturing in the New York region contracted this month the least since August and the six-month outlook improved for a third straight month. The euro was headed for its first weekly decline versus the dollar in a month on Europe’s contraction.
The Euro
It’s a really bad piece of data, and it’s going to get worse because the European Central Bank has only come up with half-hearted measures
This is going to be bad for the euro
Said Geoffrey Yu, a strategist in London at UBS AG, the world’s second-largest currency trader.
The euro slid 0.5 percent to $1.3573 at 10:15 a.m. in New York, from $1.3639 yesterday, and was headed for a weekly decrease of 0.4 percent. The euro lost 1.1 percent to 129.27 yen from 130.67, for a 3.5 percent decline this week. The dollar dropped 0.6 percent to 95.25 yen, from 95.80, after earlier decreasing 1.1 percent.
The Yen
The yen gained this week versus all of the 16 most actively traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg as reports indicating the global economic recovery may be slow reduced demand for higher- yielding assets. The yen rallied 7.6 percent to 11.06 against the South African rand and increased 5.7 percent to 14.70 versus Norway’s krone.
